måndag 7 december 2020

Interpreting the stock market

People are debating how the stock market can continue to grow during the pandemic when so many sectors are doing poorly. The answer is simple. Two things are driving the stock market development. There is one main factor driving short-term variations and another driving long-term. The short-term factor is expectations and the long term is available capital on the stock market.

Of these, the short-term is probably not very controversial and well accepted. However, the long-term driving force is interesting to think about a bit further. What can make capital available to the stock market? It is surely due to that some entry (person or corporation or government) has financial capability to invest on the stock market. This in turn, should be interpreted as this sector is doing "well" in some regard.

Now, during the pandemics, since the stock market is rising, that should be interpreted as that this very wealthy sector (that is, the entities with enough money to invest in stocks) has found the ways to manage the pandemic situation. Since we know that many people loose enormous amounts of money, it is clear where these money is going: to the financial sector. So, all that efforts governments are doing to save jobs will at the end simply boil down to redistribution from the common to the wealthiest.

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